Sunday, May 24, 2020

WHO IS BETTER? Part II

Who is the best ODI captain for India? Kapil, Ganguly, or Dhoni?

Baap Aakhir Baap Hota Hai!

 

Given the current situation, a lot of people are talking cricket by discussing what is there best XI for T20, ODI, test cricket, or variations thereof. People talk about leagues, countries, world, etc. While presenting one’s choice, their is a lot of discussion about team, people passionately discuss their team and rue the fact why they had to leave one out over the other. In most cases, based on the parameters, more than half, like what they say, pick themselves, the other half is where the debates rage on. I have long believed, the team is not only made of good players, but specialist positions, pretty much from one to eleven, with balance all across. It’s interesting to see while these teams are picked, not enough attention, perhaps, is paid to the who is the captain of the team. Very many times, one of the captains from the list gets picked to lead the chosen XI. We all know a captain's position is of a leader, and while a captain needs to lead from the front, there have been debates in the past as to if one could make it to the team based on one’s leadership qualities and cricketing brains even if he is not the best in terms of his cricketing role as a player. People have talked about how a MK Pataudi, Naser Husain, Dhoni, Mike Breareley, etc. have been excellent cricketing brains and effective leaders. Most of the times, they have performed well in their role as a batsman, bowler or keeper. However, even when their individual performance has dipped, it is believed, they have won matches based on their leadership qualities, and hence the debate.

A lot of books and articles have been written talking about leadership qualities one should have, and what makes a leader better. What makes a decision more difficult here is that a cricket captain is supposed to contribute significantly as a bowler/batsman/keeper in a game as well, unlike many western games where coach(es) are at times de facto captains of the team calling play by play. In general, there is another challenge. Most of the times people tend to pick the contemporary cricketers more than the older ones as the context is sometimes not there other than the stats.

Recently, we in a group, went through a similar exercise picking best India ODI XI, and it prompted me to think about who should be the captain of the team. Picking India ODI XI made the task a bit easier as the focus was on ODI cricket, and given the fact that we all have followed ODI pretty much for all this time (since say 1974), that helped remove the “recent” bias to some extent.

One of the key criteria most people tend to choose are the statistics. As what they say, numbers don’t lie. While the numbers don’t lie, the numbers don’t give the full picture as well. Of course, you can build a team like as shown in the movie, Moneyball, based on stats. I mentioned in my previous blog, where I state how a singular valiant performance even in a losing cause, can set the tempo, and lift the spirit of the team for the future matches. The role of the captain becomes even more important as his decisions impact the outcome of the game quite significantly, by choosing players to play in the game, making decision who goes out bat when, who fields where, who bowls when, etc.

For this hence, I will try to pick a captain based on both, the leadership qualities exhibited and of course stats as well.

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

Between, 1974 and at the time of writing this article (last match being played in March 2020), India has played a total of 987 matches, winning 513 matches, losing 424 matches, 9 tied and 41 no results, with a win to loss ratio of 1.2.


This ratio gets better, while India played in India, which is true for most all cricket playing nations.

India has had 231 players represent India in ODI, and had 24 captains so far. The list of all ODI captains for India is as follows.


Let’s focus on captains who represented India in at least 70 ODI (the next one is SM Gavaskar at 37 matches as a captain).


Please do note that Gambhir and Rahane, not in the list, during their short stint, in fact have a 100% win record.

Here, both in terms of Win percentage and Win/Loss Ratio (Number of Wins per Loss), Kohli takes the cake by a huge margin (72% Win of matches won, and lost two game for every 5 games won). Tendulkar has the worst record among the captains in this regard, as everyone knows. Rest all captains have a very similar Win percentage with Dhoni ahead of Kapil, Azhar, Ganguly and Dravid. Dhoni does have a better Win/Loss ratio than the rest of the captains among the same captains.

Let’s now examine, at home and away from home record of these captains which is an important parameter as challenges of leading a team away from home are always more than doing the same in the home conditions.


As you can imagine, in general, all have a better home win record as opposed to away win percentage (60% vs 50% roughly overall). Again, Kohli takes the cake with an impressive over 70% Win record and surprisingly perhaps, his away win record is better than his at home win record. Another notable factor here is that Ganguly has a better away win percentage than at home win percentage, 55% away from home, and 50% at home. Azhar’s at home win ratio is close to that of Kohli at about 70% but he has one of the worst differences between at home and away win percentage, along with Tendulkar. Apart from Ganguly and Kohli, all else have a better at home win percentage, though Dhoni slightly better than Kapil, Dravid and Tendulkar.

Now, let’s consider, what gets discussed all the times, who contributed well as a captain in a winning cause. This seems to be one of the obsessing factors for many, including my old roommate. I decided to compile how many times these captains won a Man of the Match award in their winning causes, an indicator of how often they were the star performers.


Here again, Kohli not only has the highest number of MoM awards in his winning matches as a captain, he is impressively MoM about 26% of the times in those matches. No surprise here perhaps, but Tendulkar though has less than impressive record as a captain, his %MoM is the best among all of these captains, at 30%. Rest all captains are close to each other with Kapil Dev (15%) and Ganguly (14%) slightly ahead of others. Remember the fact that Kapil Dev was primarily an all-rounder and Dhoni (12%) a lower order batsman and a wicket keeper which explains perhaps a higher percentage of MoM for Kapil and a lower percentage of MoM for Dhoni.

Many people feel wining a multi-nation trophy final is a much bigger than a bi-lateral win in a normal match. It’s true, there is a lot more pressure in those games and a lot more expectations. Look at the following table that shows tournament finals, semi-finals and quarter-final wins for each one of these captains. The table also shows wins in the World Cup, Asia Cup and Champions Trophy games.


Interesting thing to note that Azhar has actually won more tournaments and semi-finals/quarter-finals  (15) than any other captain. However, remember that all of his wins primarily have been three/four nation tournaments instead; impressive none the less. Dhoni stands tall, of course, winning a lot of matches (29) and finals (7) in multi-nation tournaments. As you can see, Ganguly has done pretty well with winning semi-finals 3 times, finals once, and overall winning 20 matches in the World Cup/Asia Cup/Champions Trophy Tournaments. Kapil has done well as well, especially winning India it’s first major Trophy and thereby changing the course of the Indian cricket.

How has been the performance as a player of these captains in their winning matches, you may ask? Please see as follows:


Again, Kohli is way ahead of the pack, with Tendulkar as second. Knowing that Dhoni mostly batted at 6th position, his average of over 70 in winning matches is very impressive indeed. Of course, who can ever forget the 175* by Kapil.

While for most captains, the batting average is a bit better at home and a tad lower away/neutral, two notable exceptions are Kohli and Tendulkar.


While Tendulkar’s contribution in winning matches as a batsman has been good, what Kohli has done is totally unbelievable. Over 100 average in away games with 12 over 100+ scores and 94 at neutral venues is unbailable to say the least. Again, Dhoni has been super impressive with the bat (average about and over 70, consistently) is much better than other captains; even more impressive considering the position where he batted.

Do not forget how Dhoni did as a wicketkeeper (172 dismissals) and Kapil Dev as a bowler (46 wickets) in addition to their batting.


When I started thinking about who is the best captain, I only was thinking Kapil, Ganguly or Dhoni. What stats clearly indicate that, in terms of stats, when you consider points such as, Win/loss ratio, Contribution of the captain in a winning game, performance in World Championship, and Two team vs multi format tournaments, Howe/Away performance and Win/loss ratio, Kohli stands taller than anyone, by a margin. The other notable mention in Azhar, who I am sure is ruing the weak moments he probably had. Dhoni’s record given a large period of time he has played and the matches he has won, is very impressive, While Dhoni is second in Kohli in numbers, his record is very impressive when you consider longevity, consistency and his average as a batsman playing down the order.

Note: One area that perhaps can add another dimension to this analysis is how many games were won big and lost narrowly; or conversely won narrowly or lost big. That as an adjustment could throw further light that could be interesting to analyze, but perhaps for some other day.

 

NUMBERS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY EITHER

While numbers don’t lie, they do not tell the whole story either. There are several difficulties when you compare players of different eras. The conditions are different, the rules are different, and money is different. Just the other day, Tendulkar mentioned that, had the current rules of power play were in place earlier, the numbers would have been different for them, perhaps much better. You can’t discount anything Tendulkar says! Then there is money. While the likes of Kapil and cricketers until the turn of the century perhaps struggled more, the current generation has tremendous resources available to them to be fitter cricketers, physically and mentally both. This is a true career choice, as opposed to what was there before. While I do not really like to muddle the analysis based on these factors, other than just to make mention of these, as stated in the article at the start, I feel Captain is a specialist position in the team. It is not enough to be just a good cricketer, though perhaps that is how a captain gets picked to begin with; pick your best consistent performer and make that person a captain with a bit of seniority thrown in. Leadership qualities, attitude and cricketing brains are extremely critical to the success of a captain and in turn the team. What is equally important as a captain is: Does he lead from the front? How good is he in being able to react to situations? Is he a good motivator? Does he have self-belief? Like a true leader, is he able to build a team that can deliver? What do people who play/played with him, say about him? What situation did one inherit and how it left the team? I hope you would agree that these are critical points that should be examined, before we pass our final judgement. While some of these questions do get answered by analyzing the performance, wins and averages, some are difficult to quantify. Here are some thoughts.

While it would be difficult to analyze each of the captains mentioned here, no one argues, when it comes to captaincy as to who is better- it always comes down to, Kapil, Ganguly or Dhoni?

What sets Kapil apart is his belief that we could win. Anyone who has not seen this, please do see this video first before you read ahead. 1983 World Cup Indian Cricket Teams FUNNY Moments At Kapil Dev's Biopic Movie Launch [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-Op9-xzzXk].

This is a must watch. A couple more at the bottom if you enjoy this. What this video clearly depicts is how every player of the team thought of this as a vacation for them and their wives, or having fun in England; and how most had shopping plans and onward plans to visit USA after the tournament was over. When Kapil talked about how they can defeat West Indies, he was made fun of talking about Windies’ batting and bowling, one player better than the other, from top to bottom (watch Srikanth, hilarious and so true; still so unbelievable today). No one gave India team any chance, not people, not admin and not even his own team players. What makes him the best captain, in my opinion, is his ability to make believers out of non-believers and get probably individual cricketers with much less credentials and who were much less feared, especially when compared to West Indies cricketers of that era, into a winning Team. If that is not what the legends and leaders made of, then I am not sure what else is? He gave the entire nation a joy never felt before this way. The whole nation was out on the streets. I am sure if you were young/old enough to remember, you probably know exactly where you were after the win. It has been etched in the memory of the nation.

Next, 15-16 years were ok. We won again World Championship of Cricket in Australia under Gavaskar’s leadership with brilliant performances by Shashti and L Shiva among others. We had individual brilliances of Tendulkar in games like Sharjah where two games were termed as “Desert Storm” and “Yes, lightening does strike twice”, and some great wins against Pakistan in world cups, etc.  And then came the betting scandal of Hansie Cronje that exposed the under belly of cricket, cricketers, underworld, money and betting. No team in the world was spared. People lost confidence in the game and cricketers both. Tendulkar while immensely frustrated and many a times, winning the game just on his own was not able to handle the situation, captaincy and the pressure he brought upon himself. India was in totters and did not know where to look. Enter, the, Sourav Ganguly. He probably did not have the best reputation, was called Maharaja, for as much a negative connotation as perhaps positive. What was clear was that he had fire, and a point or two to prove. He was honest and had the support. But the team was completely broken with several established players implicated in the scandal. During these times, Ganguly emerged as a true leader. Bit by bit, he built the team. Infused young blood, Sehwag, Bhajji, Zahir, Yuvraj, Dhoni and built the team around Tendulkar, Dravid, VVS, Kumble and Srinath. He put his sole focus on winning abroad. Do read his book, A Century is Not Good Enough by Saurav Ganguly, and you will see the immense preparation he put in for every foreign tour with a goal to win. His preparation before the Australia tour where he did not even tell this to his team mates and spent months planning in Australia is exemplary. He was the first captain who put so much emphasis on winning abroad and executed the best that he could. Before him, it was assumed India is a poor team abroad and was rarely taken seriously, other than perhaps the England and Windies tour under Wadekar. Saurav won, and won big. He came extremely close to winning the world cup for India again in 2003 falling at the last hurdle. He sacrificed his own position of an opener for the cause of the team. Ganguly and Tendulkar were one of the most successful opening pair scoring 8,227 runs in 176 matches at the average of 47.55; and no other pair in the world, not just India, has even crossed 6,000 runs. Yet, looking at the team and potential, he promoted Sehwag to open. VVS even advised Sehwag to not jeopardize his career based on his own experience, but Ganguly promised Sehwag an uninterrupted stint at the top and then a slot back in the middle if he failed. Rest, what they call is history. You talk to the team he built and most of them not just praise him, but perhaps are still willing to lay their ‘proverbial’ life for him. He got the confidence in team and cricket back, won matches abroad, was a fantastic cricketer (Dravid had once said, on the off side, first there is God and then Saurav), built a team, motivated youngsters and seniors to deliver the best alike, a true leader and equally adept at mind games and a brilliant cricketing brain.  His numbers may not be as good as Kohli or Dhoni, but make no mistake, as a captain what he did, in the times and situation, he did, is just unbelievable. This is what true leaders and legends; both are made of.

While Ganguly and Dravid swapped places between 1999 to 2007, when Dravid decided to step aside, and what a fantastic and disciplined cricketer and captain he was, a void existed. Upon Tendulkar’s advice and to many’s surprise, a young dashing cricketer was made captain primarily for his cricketing brain and calm and composed demeanor. Yes, that’s none other than Dhoni, affectionately Mahi for the cricket lovers around the world. What can you really write about Dhoni? His record speaks for it. However, world over and cricketers around the world, unanimously believe, Dhoni has one of the best cricketing brains. He reads situations better than others, stays calm and just when it looks like the game is out of the reach, it is not. While he supported people, he believed in as well, all captains do, he was extremely critical of the established player when he thought they did not cut the mustard. He rubbed many senior guys the wrong way and perhaps they still are bitter about it. He went about his job in the most clinical surgical way that only he knows, without looking for any personal glories. Again, no biases and prejudices, just focus on results. He has achieved that no one else has. A true captain, indeed!

Based on the analysis above, I was forced to think about Kohli as a captain. How can you ignore him for the record he has? Kohli perhaps gets left out while picking the best captain, may be because he is relatively young and the persona of these other three is much bigger. Kohli has brought a brand of aggression and expressiveness combined that was never seen before in any Indian Captain. Of course, he is the young generation, resources at his feet, and the belief the world is his oyster. With the infrastructure in place and many players choosing cricket as a profession, he is blessed with a much larger pool of talented cricketers that helps in the results. Please note that there is nothing here taking away from what and who Kohli is. People love his attitude; he is a supreme cricketer and has shown results that are the best, and are there for anyone to see.

Hmm… so where do we go from here?

Being as much fascinated by cricket, as politics, economy, technology and business, I turned my attention to business and asked myself if I could find a parallel in the business world to come to a conclusion. Could I try to answer, who is the best businessman India has produced?

To me Kapil Dev is like ‘the’ JRD Tata of the business world. First true businessman perhaps, a consummate professional, dedicated and built success when there was nothing much around. Next comes the success of Ambanis. Dhirubhai battled like Ganguly. Adverse situation, limited resources, difficulties but roared like a lion and made a name for himself. Not only he did that, he also gave Mukesh Ambani a platform to build success. Mukesh is touted as one of the best business brains today and has created a success never seen before by any other Indian businessman. That’s Dhoni for you in the cricketing world, the heights that he reached are awe inspiring. Kohli is the next generation Ambani who has the support of the leader still being around, platform that exists and the resources they have. With the attitude of the younger generation and plans bigger than anything before, they can aim to disrupt like Jio. And that is Kohli for you.

How do you pick the best business leader? Take your pick, you can’t go wrong with anyone here. Based on the wealth created, it’s Mukesh Ambani; and hence Dhoni for you. To me, I would summarize, without taking anything away from JRD or Mukesh or the next Ambani gen, to me it is Dhirubhai! Yes, you guessed it, to me it is none other than Ganguly for what he did, under the circumstances he had with the resources that were available to him! BAAP AAKHIR BAAP HOTA HAI! Or, DADA AAKHIR DADA HAI!

 

Acknowledgements:

1. All stats are compiled using statsguru by ESPNcricinfo, an amazing platform!

2.  There are a couple of other videos that you may enjoy in reference to 1983 World Cup team interactions.

a. The Kapil Sharma Show Season 2 - Ep 21 - Full Episode - 9th March, 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZg9ZNNvDAo  


b. The Kapil Sharma Show Season 2 - Ep 22 - Full Episode - 10th March, 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-3T84SzCF8



Thursday, January 13, 2011

Who is better?

Who is better? Tendulkar, Ponting or Kallis?

By Ashok H Mittal on January 9, 2011 ahmittal@gmail.com

From time to time, there have been several articles written comparing Tendulkar to Bradman, Tendulkar to Ponting etc. This has been a common exercise and a favorite pastime of many experts and analysts over the years. While a section of experts and analysts will argue one who has made the most runs, scored more centuries, has a higher average etc as yardsticks to decide who is better, an another section of experts and analysts argue how effective a player has been in getting a team to win to be more important yardstick for comparison.

Let’s start with overall record of three of the perhaps best contemporary cricketers who each have done fabulously for their country and the world of cricket, and are compared at times – Tendulkar, Ponting and Kallis.

No one can argue the greatness of any of these three players. Based on a total number of runs scored, 14,692 to date, number of centuries, 51, and half centuries, 59, Tendulkar is a better player with much longer playing record than Ponting or Kallis. Kallis however does edge ahead a little with a career average of 57.43 over Tendulkar’s 56.94. Just to be fair, here though, of the contemporaries, Dravid, who has currently scored more runs than Kallis, has been kept out to keep the scope of comparison this among the three players – Tendulkar, Ponting and Kallis. A table at the bottom gives you an opportunity to analyze Dravid if you so choose.

Most experts, analysts and players do not have a problem giving the top prize to Tendulkar here.

Right after the first test against South Africa in the current series where Tendulkar scored a century, the daggers supposedly had come out for his effort, like in the past – Another century where India lost! I remember the post match analysis in several sections, where Dhoni and others mentioned, how important it was for India to score 459 in their second inning of the match. As most experts agree, the game at the highest level is played as much in minds as it is on the field. This effort let India walk away with their heads held a bit higher, giving them a comfort in a big loss, that there is a hope. It gave them a belief that they are good enough to fight and win. They gave themselves a chance to pick themselves up and fight on with their life. Without that century, disregarding that it was a personal milestone and a cricketing history that Tendulkar scored his 50th century, India could well have been out for may be around 300. It still would have been a loss, but the important thing is where would have India found the courage to pick themselves up, believe in themselves and go on to fight and win the next one? How do you measure this effort in terms of stats or how can you label a century in a drawn or a lost test as worthless or just for records, like in this case?

A section of experts and analysts may not discredit this completely, yet they would argue their case that isn’t it perhaps better that a player contributes more to the success or purely in this case matches won by the country and relegate the overall stats for the record books instead? I have had a similar argument with my room mate in 1986 while comparing Gavaskar and Vishwanath where he argued furiously as to why Vishwanath was better than Gavaskar even though most all batting records belonged to Gavaskar at the time. More on this later, and coming to the players under discussion here, their argument is Ponting has scored 28 centuries as compared to Tendulkar’s 20 centuries and Kallis’s 19 centuries in their respective countries wins. You can’t really argue against that fact. Can you?

However, this forced me to really take this argument and analyze it further and see if really that is the way to compare them. The first thought that occurred to me is: Is really the century a bottom line parameter in case of a batsman’s contribution to winning a game? Of course, not. Many a games in the subcontinent are where you are winning in the fourth inning by scoring less than 200-250 runs, chances of one scoring a century diminishes. I used the information available on Statsguru at cricinfo.com to analyze this further. Following table describes contribution by these players when they were part of the winning test team for their countries. Here is what I found:

Tendulkar has in his career been part of 61 matches won by India. In comparison, Kallis has been a part of a winning South African team 69 times and Ponting 99 times. Cricket being a team game, we can not credit Ponting or Kallis for their higher wins. Having said that, the further analysis of the data reveals a very interesting story. In the matches won by their countries when these players have been part of their respective teams, Tendulkar has a much higher average of 67.56 runs than Ponting’s 59.47. In fact, Kallis, behind Tendulkar, has been much better than Ponting as well. Further, please look at the last three columns. Even though Ponting has more centuries in wining games, Tendulkar has scored a century every 4.85 winning match innings as compared to Ponting making a century every 5.82 wining match innings. Tendulkar has been out on zero only 3.28% times as opposed to Ponting’s 7.07%, more than double. Staying not out conveys how many times have you seen your country through to the win or contributed to the max you could in the earlier inning. Again here, Tendulkar has been more times not out (percent times not out as compared to innings played) than Ponting. However, Kallis has in this particular case done better than Tendulkar.

Consider an another information: The table below shows stats for India, South Africa and Australia for matches they won when Tendulkar, Kallis and Tendulkar were part of the winning team respectively.

In the matches that India won with Tendulkar in the team, Australia won with Ponting in the team and South Africa won with Kallis in the team, who scored more runs of their team total or scored more centuries overall? No prize for guessing it! Tendulkar again! He scored more runs – a 16.63% of the total runs scored by India in these matches as compared to Ponting scoring a 14.94% of his team total. Kallis once again is closer to Tendulkar here than Ponting. Coming back to centuries, again, in terms of percentage of total centuries scored by the team in those winning matches, Tendulkar is way ahead by close to 10% more than Ponting. Kallis comes second again.

This analysis underscores a couple of very interesting points- Tendulkar is better, period. Not that this needed affirmation, but I hope the group that believes contribution of a player in winning matches is more important can now put their apprehensions aside and agree or take comfort in the fact that even stats suggest that Tendulkar is better.

What is a surprise to me in this analysis is that while the argument always has been who is better - Tendulkar or Ponting, it is actually Kallis who is a rather close second, way ahead of Ponting.

PS: For my room mate, Chandra, you may find the following interesting, and by the way I can have this argument with you all over again; or may be you did have a point a bit J The table below describes contributions of Gavaskar and Vishwanath in matches that India won and they were part of the winning team individually.

PPS: For guys who after reading this may be wondering about our very very special cricketer VVS Laxman, may like to analyze this as well. Nothing to take away from our very special cricketer, however ignore The Wall, Mr. Rahul Dravid, only at your own peril. The table below compares contributions of Tendulkar, Dravid, Laxman and Ganguly in matches that India won and they were part of the winning team individually.